Over the past few years, I’ve been observing how the global economy and the coffee market often mirror one another. Prices rise and fall sometimes testing extremes, what fascinates me most is not the numbers themselves, but the way human emotions repeat through every cycle. Most of us tend to be wrong at the very top and bottom of the market. Beyond charts, models, and policies, the market seems to breathe like nature itself expanding and contracting through emotional seasons. By the time the crowd recognizes the trend, it’s often already too late.
That coffee in your hand isn’t just a beverage. It’s a mini economic contract. With Arabica trading around 400 cts/lb, the highest level in over a decade, every price movement reflects global trust in the USD, the Federal Reserve’s policy, and inflation expectations. Coffee isn’t just a crop , it’s a measure of belief in our economic reality.
Throughout every round of quantitative easing (QE), coffee prices have surged. From 2008 to 2011, under QE 1–2, Arabica rose from 100 to 300 cts/lb (+200%). During the COVID QE from 2020 to 2022, it climbed from 95 to 260 cts/lb (+174%). When the FED expands the money supply, the real value of the USD falls, and commodities priced in dollars – gold, oil, coffee – rise to preserve purchasing power. Funds go long because money can be printed, but coffee cannot.
Global M2 Money Supply (1960–2025)
(US, Euro Area, Japan, and UK — Source: TradingEconomics.com)
The chart above visualizes how global money supply (M2) has expanded exponentially across major economies since the 1960s.
Notice how every round of Quantitative Easing 2008, 2020, and the recent post-pandemic years triggered a sharp increase in liquidity.
Each surge of printed money pushes investors toward real assets: gold, oil, and coffee.
While fiat currencies can be created instantly, coffee takes years to grow, harvest, and process. That’s why it reacts as both a commodity and a store of trust.
📈 Arabica Coffee and Gold Price Correlation (2004–2025)
(Brown line = Coffee price, Green line = Gold price, Red dashed lines = simplified trend lines drawn to visualize the overall direction of both markets)
The chart above shows how coffee (brown line) and gold (green line) have followed almost identical long-term trends. Both move in similar uptrend and downtrend cycles, driven by the same macro forces: inflation, money supply, and investor sentiment. Fiat currencies can be printed endlessly, but gold and commodities like coffee are finite. Over time, the real store of value gravitates back to what cannot be created from thin air.
The global coffee market is projected to reach USD 186.55 billion by 2033 (CAGR 4.9%, Research and Markets)
In addition to monetary factors, climate change is putting long-term pressure on Arabica production, especially in key regions like Brazil, Colombia, and Central America, where rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall are reducing yields and quality consistency. Meanwhile, demand in emerging markets across Asia and the Middle East is expanding steadily, driven by young populations, urban lifestyles, and a rapidly growing specialty coffee culture. These regions represent more than half of the world’s population, and their economic growth ensures that global coffee consumption will continue to rise, even as production faces increasing natural constraints.
According to my method, if Arabica closes weekly above 390 cts/lb, the uptrend is confirmed and likely to last until February 2026. The indicators align: MA20 crossing above MA50 (Golden Cross), RSI above 60 (strong momentum), Managed Money positions up 12% in three weeks (accumulation phase), and clear backwardation on ICE (physical shortage confirmed). If QE restarts in 2025, Arabica could rally to 420–480 cts/lb, possibly testing 500 cts/lb short term before correction.
QE inflates financial assets, but only tangible goods retain true value. Coffee born from soil, water, and human labor and it is becoming the new measure of real wealth, much like gold. Producers now hold “brown gold,” while printed dollars are merely promises without limit.
Roasters and importers must hedge using futures and options. Coffee companies need agile cashflow management, since green bean prices can jump 30–50% within months. Investors should treat coffee as a store of real value, a soft commodity with better liquidity and natural cycles than crypto or stocks.
As cheap money returns, every real value will be redefined. Coffee is no longer just a beverage it’s a symbol of trust, labor, and tangible worth.
“One day, when money loses its meaning, people will measure everything by… a cup of coffee.”
— Anthony Huy Nguyen